Four losses already, nine Tests left: What Shubman Gill’s India need to do to reach WTC final?
India face a demanding final stretch in the 2025-27 World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, with nine Tests remaining and little room for further losses if they are to reach the final at The Oval in June next year.“The main goal is to play the WTC final, which is next year. And we have got about nine Tests and I think we have to win around six or seven to be able to have a good chance at qualifying. So in terms of that, I think it’s a very important series for us,”India captain Gill said at the pre-match press conference ahead of first Test against Sri Lanka on Saturday.Shubman Gill‘s side has played nine Tests so far in the current WTC cycle, winning four, losing four and drawing one. Four of their remaining nine matches will be played away from home, with the next two series coming in Sri Lanka, starting Saturday, and New Zealand.India’s two-Test series against Sri Lanka begins on August 15, followed by a two-Test tour of New Zealand in November. The WTC cycle will end with a five-Test series against Australia at home early next year.India currently have 52 points from nine matches and a points percentage (PCT) of 48.15. In the previous two WTC cycles, a PCT of around 60 was enough for a team to qualify for the final.
WTC 2025-27 points table
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Lost | Drawn | Deducted | Points | PCT |
| 1 | Australia | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 87.5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 75 |
| 3 | New Zealand | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 72.22 |
| 4 | Bangladesh | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 58.33 |
| 5 | India | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 48.15 |
| 6 | Sri Lanka | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 41.67 |
| 7 | England | 13 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 24.36 |
| 8 | Pakistan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 22.22 |
| 9 | West Indies | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 20.83 |
Under the current system, a win is worth 12 points, a draw four and a tie six.India can reach a maximum PCT of 74.07 if they win all nine remaining Tests. However, that would be a difficult task given their record in New Zealand and recent results at home. India have not won a Test in New Zealand since 2009 and have lost five of their last eight Tests at home.To reach a PCT of 60, India need to collect at least 78 points from their remaining nine matches. That means they cannot afford to lose more than two Tests.If India lose three of their remaining matches, they can collect a maximum of 72 points, which would leave them short of a 60 PCT.The possible routes include:
- Six wins and two draws would take India to a PCT of 61.11.
- Seven wins would take their PCT to 62.96 and strengthen their chances of reaching the final.
- Eight or nine wins would likely secure India’s place in the WTC final.
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